Summary
Rolf Dobelli dissects 99 cognitive biases—mental shortcuts or mistakes in thinking—that compromise our judgment in this book. Knowing these prejudices will help us to make better decisions in relationships, business, and daily life.
One of the key biases and thinking traps is survivorship bias.
We pay more attention to the winners than the losers.
Successful companies abound; thus, we believe copying them will bring success, ignoring the mistakes no one else talks about.
2. Biases in Confirmation
We ignore what runs counter to our current opinions in favor of material to bolster them.
3. Fallacy of Sunk Cost
I can’t stop now; I have already spent so much on this.
Driven by past effort, we blindly keep investing in something instead of assessing future value.
4. Availability Bias
We overstate the value of easily available information (news headlines, dramatic narratives).
5. Herd Behavior, Social Proof
“Everyone else is doing it; it must be right.”
Popularity cannot equal truth or value.
6. Action Aversion
To feel in control, we believe we have to act—even if it worsens things.
7. Bias in Outcomes
Not the quality of the decision-making, but the outcome determines our judgment of decisions.
8. Aversion toward Loss
More than we value, we fear losing something.
People will go farther to prevent losing $10 than to get $10.
9. Effect of Recency
Even if it’s not the most crucial, the most current data usually rules our decisions.
10. Halo Reaction
We assume someone excels in others too (e.g., attractive = competent) if they shine in one area.
Advice from Dobelli on Clear Thinking
Slow down your thinking; avoid making snap decisions.
Allow uncertainty and fight the illusion of control.
Stories and basic explanations should make you dubious since they sometimes overlook important information.
Especially in financial or professional decisions, separate feelings from analysis.
Think about probability; there are no absolutes.
Thought of conclusion
A useful and easily available manual for spotting and avoiding the mental traps causing bad decisions is The Art of Thinking Clearly. It doesn’t guarantee perfection, but by guiding more logically, it reduces errors.
Would you like a printable checklist of the book’s top twenty biases?